It’s March. Now what?
Conference races settled. League tournaments played. Survival of the bubble decided. The first four months provided lots of intriguing numbers. March will decide if they meant anything in the end.
What to make, for example, of all the gilded records at the top of the poll? Duke is 27-2. So is Michigan. So is Arizona. Together they are 26-5 against ranked opponents, 36-5 in Quad 1 games, 45-1 in everything else. Their six losses have come by a combined 19 points, and five of those were when they played each other — Duke over Michigan. They’re at the top in the NET ratings, ahead of the field by several car lengths on KenPom.
Is the sport as top-heavy as those numbers seem? March will know. In case it comes up, only two teams with two losses have appeared in the NCAA tournament the entire decade. It's not outlandish to imagine three in this Final Four.
MARCH MADNESS: Andy Katz's latest NCAA tournament bracket predictions
What to make of Duke’s stockpile of accomplishment? Ten wins over ranked opponents . . . 37 wins in its past 39 games against ACC teams . . . a 62-6 record the past two seasons . . . 27 of 29 opponents held under their scoring average, including Virginia by 31 on Saturday. Plus this oddity: The Blue Devils have trailed by double digits in four games this season and came back to win them all. But in their only two defeats, they were ahead 17 and 13.
This is a program on a tear. Duke has lost one game by double digits in the past three years. One. But Saturday’s pounding of Virginia was the 68th the Blue Devils have won that way. One other slightly bizarre stat from Durham: Duke has won at least a share of the ACC season title in back-to-back seasons.
The Blue Devils have all the statistical glitter, not to mention Cameron Boozer. Now to see how far that can take them.
What to make of Michigan’s six wins over ranked opponents by 10 or more points? Never mind 10, three of them were by 30. The case could be made the Wolverines have been the most dominant team in America most nights. They lead the beefy Big Ten by three games. But March will test that theory. And now key reserve L.J. Cason is gone with an ACL injury.
What to make of Arizona with an offense putting up 87 points a game, even as it sits at 336th in the nation in 3-pointers? At first impression it does not compute, but then you look at the muscle the Wildcats bring to the trenches. They outrebounded Kansas by 22 Saturday and outscored the Jayhawks 30-20 in the paint. Arizona had a 19-0 run in the first half and when that wasn’t enough to do the job, the Wildcats had another 16-0 sprint in the second half. In those two spurts combined, Arizona made only two 3-pointers. The Wildcats haven’t needed much from long distance. Will they this month?
What to make of Florida’s surge? The Gators have gone from that 5-4 wobble of a start to an 18-2 closing rampage. They have won nine consecutive SEC games by an average of 22.5 points, a couple of them by 47 and 34. They have torn through six ranked opponents in a row and scored at least 91 points in all of them. Only UNLV and Loyola Marymount had ever done that before and that was 36 years ago. The 111-77 dismantling of Arkansas Saturday matched the worst loss of John Calipari’s career.
They have moved next in line to the Big Three in most power rankings and a whole bunch of office pool brackets out there will have a Duke-Arizona-Michigan-Florida Final Four. Could it be that pat? The repeat that once looked iffy now seems very, very possible.
What to make of the 29-0 perfection of Miami Ohio, now that the RedHawks just survived their sixth Mid-American Conference game by one possession or in overtime? Team of destiny or blessed with the luck of a lottery winner? Two more regular season wins (Toledo home, Ohio away) and a title run in the MAC tournament and the RedHawks will be the 21st team to go into the NCAA tournament unbeaten. The question is what happens if the late-game escape well runs dry one night and Miami loses, with its extremely modest schedule metrics.
The committee’s thinking on that scenario would be one of college basketball’s most compelling issues the next two weeks. Exclusion from the tournament would cause an absolute firestorm on Selection Sunday.
MORE: Miami (OH) stays undefeated with last-second basket against Western Michigan
What to make of Purdue going from No. 1 in the nation to fifth place in the Big Ten? Or the Boilermakers losing four times in Mackey Arena, which is supposed to be the place opposing teams go to be microwaved? Some suggest that maybe something is a tad amiss, but notice the four visitors to win in Mackey — Iowa State, Michigan, Illinois and Michigan State — had a combined record at the end of February of 96-19. Purdue's a little hard to figure. March will have to do it.
What to make of St. John’s? The Red Storm meander off the starting line at 9-5, then win 13 in a row for their longest victory run in four decades. They lose to UConn by 32 and three days later pancake Villanova by 32. What’s next? Only March knows.
What to make of the turnaround of the other Miami? In one year the Hurricanes have gone from 7-23 to 24-6. From 3-17 in the ACC to 12-4. If Jai Lucas isn’t mentioned in coach of the year conversations, he should be. Here’s a side question for the month: Which Miami surprise package lasts longer in the tournament?
What to make of UMBC winning an outright America East season title for the first time in 18 years with a 20-8 record? You remember the Retrievers. Virginia certainly does. It was 2018 that No. 16 seed UMBC shocked the history books and the No. 1 seed Cavaliers with a 20-point shellacking. The Retrievers haven’t been back to the NCAA tournament since.
What to make of the Sun Belt? Troy wins the season title and six teams finish tied for second one game behind. That ought to be a fun conference tournament.
What to make of the all-hands-on-deck Saint Louis offense that has led the Billikens to a 26-3 record and No. 1 in the nation in scoring margin? How does a team do that with nobody averaging more than 13 points a game? Saint Louis is No. 7 in the nation in scoring but its top individual, Robbie Avila, is tied for 549th. Balance and defense — the Billikens have the best field goal percentage defense in the land — must get them as far as they will go.
What to make of Navy and its 13-game winning streak, which is behind only Miami? The 25-6 Midshipmen lapped the field in the Patriot League, winning the season title by six games. The 25 wins are the most in Academy history for any team that didn’t have someone named David Robinson. It would be excruciating, then, for Navy to founder in the conference tournament, especially since the door is open for its first NCAA tournament bid this century.
What to make of Hawaii’s roster of older married guys? Five Rainbow Warriors have taken the plunge. Seven are 23 or older. Assist leader Hunter Erickson is 26. All that life experience has helped Hawai’i share the Big West lead. If the Rainbow Warriors can get to their first NCAA tournament in 10 years, they’re going to need a big family section in the stands.
📊: Latest NET rankings
What to make of UCLA? A 16-1 juggernaut at home, a 3-9 train wreck on the road. March will decide if that is a fatal flaw since neither the Big Ten tournament nor the NCAA tournament are in Pauley Pavilion.
What to make of Belmont? The 26-4 record, the one loss in regulation since Dec. 3, the 11 true road victories. The fact Missouri Valley teams are 13-4 in their first NCAA tournament games since 2012. Would you want to see the Bruins in the first round?
What to make of Texas Tech’s 3-0 record since the loss of star JT Toppin? He goes out with an ACL injury and the Red Raiders score 100, 80 and 82 points — the last total enough to beat No. 4 Iowa State right in front of Hilton Magic. Many dismissed Texas Tech’s chances when Toppin was lost. That might need a review.
What to make of Kansas? The Jayhawks won eight in a row but now have lost three of their past five by 18, 16 and 23 points. Darryn Peterson was back in full force Saturday and scored 24 points at Arizona, and that must be considered a good sign. But the fact remains Kansas is 12-6 with him and 9-2 without him. It is a puzzle only March can solve.
What to make of eight freshmen scoring 40 points in a game this season? This class has grabbed headline after headline, Will it be that way in the first — and for many their last — college postseasons of their careers? For future reference, only three freshmen have been named Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four in the past 39 years.
What to make of the Horizon League? Goodness knows what will happen in that tournament since the conference started discarding the form charts a long time ago. The top three seeds in the Horizon tournament — Wright State, Robert Morris and Detroit — were picked seventh, fourth and ninth in the preseason poll.
What to make of Bethune-Cookman? The SWAC season champion Wildcats are in runaway mode, four games up on the field. But now comes the hard part; they have to do it all over again in the league tournament to break down a door. They are the only team in the SWAC never to have played in the NCAA tournament.
What to make of Kentucky with no ranking and 10 losses? The Wildcats have had some tough moments, and that’s not even counting Mark Pope’s fine for haranguing the officials. They started 0-4 this season against ranked teams but the win over Vanderbilt Saturday was their fifth ranked victory, and they seem to have found strength in numbers. Though injuries have been a recurring issue — this regular season will end with Kentucky having a full roster in only five of Pope’s 52 games against power conferences so far as coach — Collin Chandler on Saturday became the eighth Wildcat this season to score 20 points in a game. Kentucky hadn’t seen that in 34 years.
So the Wildcats might be dangerous this month. Or not.
What to make of Auburn? The Tigers have lost seven of eight to fall to 15-14, and that’s an easy record to dismiss from any bubble talk. Except they have beaten Arkansas, they have beaten St. John’s, they have beaten Florida, in Gainesville. Is there still time to make a case or does Auburn go from Final Four to missing its first tournament in five years?
The regular season ends with such unanswered questions, unfinished business and last hopes on life support. Only March can sort it out. And it’s here.
